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Central Bank Research Hub - Hong Kong Monetary Authority Working Papers



Long-term and Short-term Determinants of Property Prices in Hong Kong (JEL R31)

by Frank Leung, Kevin Chow and Gaofeng HanWP08_15
(Oct 2008)
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How Dependent is the Chinese Economy on Exports and in What Sense has its Growth been Export-led? (JEL F13, O11, O43)

by Dong He and Wenlang ZhangWP08_14
(Oct 2008)
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Stress Testing Banks' Credit Risk Using Mixture Vector Autoregressive Models

by Tom Pak-wing Fong and Chun-shan WongWP08_13
(Oct 2008)
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Changes in Investors' Risk Appetite - An Assessment of Financial Integration and Interdependence

by Laurence Fung, Chi-sang Tam and Ip-wing YuWP08_12
(Aug 2008)
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What Drives Hong Kong Dollar Swap Spreads: Credit or Liquidity?

by Cho-Hoi Hui and Lillie LamWP08_10
(Jul 2008)
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Impact of IPO Activities on the Hong Kong Dollar Interbank Market (JEL E4, E43, E50, G14)

by Frank Leung and Philip NgWP08_11
(Jul 2008)
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A Note on Estimating Realignment Probabilities -- A First-Passage-Time Approach (JEL F31, G13)

by Cho-Hoi Hui and Chi-Fai LoWP08_09
(Jun 2008)
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Comparing Forecast Performance of Exchange Rate Models (JEL C11, C52, C53)

by Lillie Lam, Laurence Fung and Ip-wing YuWP08_08
(Jun 2008)
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The Foreign Exchange Exposure of Chinese Banks (JEL E58, F31, G21, G28)

by Eric Wong, Jim Wong and Phyllis LeungWP08_07
(Jun 2008)
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What Prompts the People's Bank of China to Change its Monetary Policy Stance? Evidence from a Discrete Choice Model (JEL C25, C32, E52, E58)

by Dong He and Laurent L. PauwelsWP08_06
(Jun 2008)
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Do External Political Pressures Affect the Renminbi Exchange Rate? (JEL F31, G10)

by Li-gang Liu, Laurent Pauwels, and Jun-yu ChanWP08_05
(May 2008)
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Service Exports: The Next Engine of Growth For Hong Kong? (JEL F1, F2)

by Frank Leung, Kevin Chow, Jessica Szeto and Dickson TamWP08_04
(Apr 2008)
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Market Expectation of Appreciation of the Renminbi (JEL F31, G13)

by Cho-Hoi Hui, Chi-Fai Lo and Tsz-Kin ChungWP08_03
(Apr 2008)
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Predicting Stock Market Returns by Combining Forecasts (JEL C13, G11, G12)

by Laurence Fung and Ip-wing YuWP08_01
(Mar 2008)
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Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Inflation in Hong Kong (JEL F3, F4)

by Li-gang Liu and Andrew TsangWP08_02
(Mar 2008)
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2007

A Leading Indicator Model of Banking Distress - Developing an Early Warning System for Hong Kong and Other EMEAP Economies (JEL E44, E47, G21)

by Jim Wong, Eric Wong, and Phyllis LeungWP07_22
(Dec 2007)
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Is the Hong Kong Dollar Real Exchange Rate Misaligned? (JEL F32, F41)

by Frank Leung and Philip NgWP07_21
(Dec 2007)
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How Large is the Wealth Effect on Hong Kong's Consumption? Evidence from a Habit Formation Model of Consumption (JEL E21, E32)

by Li-gang Liu, Laurent L. Pauwels and Andrew TsangWP07_20
(Dec 2007)
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Assessing the Credibility of The Convertibility Zone of The Hong Kong Dollar (JEL C11, C15, C22, F31)

by Laurence Fung and Ip-wing YuWP07_19
(Dec 2007)
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Hong Kong's Consumption Function Revisited (JEL E21, E32)

by Li-gang Liu, Laurent Pauwels and Andrew TsangWP07_16
(Nov 2007)
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How Do Macroeconomic Developments in Mainland China Affect Hong Kong's Short-term Interest Rates? (JEL E4, F36)

by Dong He, Frank Leung and Philip NgWP07_17
(Nov 2007)
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A New Keynesian Model for Analysing Monetary Policy in Mainland China (JEL E42, E52)

by Li-gang Liu and Wenlang ZhangWP07_18
(Nov 2007)
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Monetary and Financial Cooperation among Central Banks in East Asia and the Pacific (JEL E42, F33, F36)

by Hans Genberg and Dong HeWP07_15
(Nov 2007)
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Hong Kong as An International Financial Centre: Measuring its Position and Determinants (JEL F21, G15, G28)

by Lillian Cheung and Vincent YeungWP07_14
(Sep 2007)
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Is the Hong Kong Dollar Exchange Rate "Bounded" in the Convertibility Zone? (JEL F31, G13)

by Cho-Hoi Hui and Tom FongWP07_13
(Sep 2007)
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Ratings Versus Market-Based Measures of Default Risk of East Asian Banks (JEL G13, G14, G21, G32)

by Eric T.C. Wong, Cho-Hoi Hui and Chi-fai LoWP07_12
(Aug 2007)
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Share Price Disparity in Chinese Stock Markets (JEL C23, F36, G10, G12)

by Tom Fong, Alfred Wong and Ivy YongWP07_11
(Jul 2007)
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Assessing Bond Market Integration in Asia (JEL C13, C22, F36, G15)

by Ip-wing Yu, Laurence Fung and Chi-sang TamWP07_10
(Jun 2007)
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Modelling Sovereign Bond Yield Curves of the US, Japan and Germany (JEL C5, E4, G1)

by Chi-sang Tam and Ip-wing YuWP07_09
(May 2007)
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Valuing Foreign Currency Options with a Mean-Reverting Process: A Study of Hong Kong Dollar (JEL F13, G13)

by Cho-hoi Hui, Vincent Yeung, Laurence Fung and Chi-Fai, LoWP07_08
(May 2007)
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A Real Activity Index for Mainland China (JEL C43, C53)

by Li-gang Liu, Wenlang Zhang, and Jimmy ShekWP07_07
(May 2007)
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Sense and Nonsense on Asia's Export Dependency and The Decoupling Thesis

by Dong He, Lillian Cheung and Jian ChangRM2007-06
(26 Apr 2007)

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Determinants of the Performance of Banks in Hong Kong (JEL G14, G21, G28, L11)

by Jim Wong, Tom Fong, Eric Wong, and Ka-fai ChoiWP07_06
(Apr 2007)
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Measuring Market Sentiment in Hong Kong's Stock Market (JEL G10, G12, G13)

by Ip-Wing Yu and Chi-Sang TamWP07_05
(Apr 2007)
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Assessing Financial Market Integration In Asia - Equity Markets (JEL C13, C22, F36, G15)

by Ip-wing Yu, Laurence Fung and Chi-sang TamWP07_04
(Apr 2007)
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A VAR Framework for Forecasting Hong Kong's Output and Inflation

by Hans Genberg and Jian ChangRM2007-05
(21 Mar 2007)

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Testing For Collusion in the Hong Kong Banking Sector

by Jim Wong, Eric Wong, Tom Fong and Ka-fai ChoiRM2007-03
(05 Mar 2007)

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2006

How Efficient Has Been China's Investment? Empirical Evidence from National and Provincial Data

by Dong He, Wenlang Zhang and Jimmy ShekRM2006-19
(08 Dec 2006)

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Hong Kong's Trade Patterns and Trade Elasticities

by Li-gang Liu, Kelvin Fan and Jimmy ShekRM2006-18
(07 Dec 2006)

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Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in East Asia: Did China Crowd Out FDI from Her Developing East Asian Neighbours

by Li-gang Liu, Kevin Chow and Unias LiRM2006-17
(07 Dec 2006)

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Competition in Hong Kong's Banking Sector: A Panzar-Rosse Assessment

by Jim Wong, Eric Wong, Tom Fong and Ka-fai ChoiRM2006-16
(27 Oct 2006)

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A Framework for Stress Testing Bank's Credit Risk

by Jim Wong, Ka-fai Choi, and Tom FongRM2006-15
(19 Oct 2006)

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Structural Determinants of Hong Kong's Current Account Surplus

by Frank LeungRM2006-14
(11 Oct 2006)

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The Cost Efficiency of Commercial Banks in Hong Kong

by Jim Wong, Tom Fong, Eric Wong and Ka-fai ChoiRM2006-12
(05 Oct 2006)

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Outward Portfolio Investment From Mainland China: How Much Do We Expect And How Large a Share Can Hong Kong Expect to Capture?

by Lillian Cheung, Kevin Chow, Jian Chang and Unias LiRM2006-13
(29 Sep 2006)

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Hong Kong's Economic Integration and Business Cycle Synchronisation with Mainland China and the US

by Hans Genberg, Li-gang Liu and Xiangrong JinRM2006-11
(21 Sep 2006)

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Cross-Border Fund Flows and Hong Kong Banks' External Transactions vis-à-vis Mainland China

by Joanna Shi and Andrew TsangRM2006-07
(07 Sep 2006)

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An Approach to Measuring Provisions for Collateralised Lending

by Cho-hoi Hui and Tom FongRM2006-08
(04 Jul 2006)

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Assessing the Risk of Multiple Defaults in the Banking System

by Ip-wing Yu, Laurence Fung and Chi-sang TamRM2006-06
(30 Jun 2006)

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Currency Barrier Option Pricing with Mean Reversion

by Cho-hoi HuiRM2006-05
(16 Jun 2006)

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Forecasting the Non-Rental Component of Hong Kong's CCPI Inflation - an Indicator Approach

by Li-gang Liu, Jian Chang and Andrew TsangRM2006-03
(06 Jun 2006)

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Estimating Demand for Narrow Money and Broad Money

by Daryl Ho, Jimmy Shek, Andrew TsangRM2006-02
(23 May 2006)

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Measuring Provisions for Collateralised Retail Lending

by Cho-hoi HuiRM2006-01
(10 Apr 2006)

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The Macroeconomic Impact on Hong

by Dong He, Chang Shu, Raymond Yip and Wendy ChengRM2005-15
(Feb 2006)

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2005

The Composite Interest Rate of Hong Kong - A New Data Series

by Market Research DivisionRM2005-26
(Dec 2005)

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A Structural Approach to Assessing the Credit Risk of Hong Kong's Corporate Sector

by Ip-wing Yu and Laurence FungRM2005-24
(Dec 2005)

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Adjusting For The Chinese New Year: An Operational Approach

by Chang Shu and Andrew TsangRM2005-22
(Nov 2005)

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Exchange Rate Risk Premiums In Hong Kong Dollar: A Signal-Extraction Approach

by Ip-wing Yu, Laurence Fung and Chen HongyiRM2005-18
(Nov 2005)

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Determinants of the Capital Level of Banks in Hong Kong

by Jim Wong, Ka-fai Choi and Tom FongRM2005-13
(Sep 2005)

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The Property Market and the Macroeconomy of the Mainland: A Cross Region Study

by Wensheng Peng, Matthew Yiu and Dickson TamRM2005-12
(Aug 2005)

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How Useful are the E/P Ratio and the Spreads between the E/P Ratio and Interest Rates in Forecasting Hong Kong Stock Market Conditions?

by Hongyi ChenRM2005-11
(Aug 2005)

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Hong Kong Mortgage Rate Setting - An Alternative Reference Rate?

by Jim Wong, Cho-hoi Hui and Laurence FungRM2005-09
(Aug 2005)

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The Relationship between Commodity and Consumer Prices in Mainland China and Hong Kong

by Joanne Cutler, Carrie Chan and Unias LiRM2005-08
(May 2005)

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Monetary Management in Mainland China in the Face of Large Capital Inflows

by Dong He, Carmen Chu, Chang Shu and Amy WongRM2005-07
(Apr 2005)

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Money and Inflation in China

by Stefan Gerlach and Janet KongRM2005-04
(Mar 2005)

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Interest Rate Risk in the Pricing Of Banks' Mortgage Lending

by Jim Wong, Laurence Fung, Tom Fong and Cho-hoi HuiRM2005-05
(Mar 2005)

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Benchmarking Model Of Default Probabilities Of Listed Companies

by Cho-hoi HuiRM2005-06
(Mar 2005)

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Are Corporates' Target Leverage Ratios Time-Dependent?

by Cho-hoi HuiRM2005-03
(Feb 2005)

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Hang Seng Index Futures Open Interest and its Relationship with the Cash Market

by Hongyi Chen, Laurence Fung and Jim WongRM2005-02
(Feb 2005)

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A Monetary Conditions Index for Mainland China

by Wensheng Peng and Frank LeungRM2005-01
(Jan 2005)

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2004

Residential Mortgage Default Risk in Hong Kong

by Jim Wong, Laurence Fung, Tom Fong and Angela SzeRM2004-07
(Nov 2004)

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Key Price Indicators And Inflation In Hong Kong

by Wensheng Peng and Kelvin FanRM2004-06
(Nov 2004)

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Intra-Regional Trade and the Role of Mainland China

by Joanne Cutler, Kevin Chow, Carrie Chan and Unias LiRM2004-05
(Sep 2004)

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Demand for cash around Chinese New Year

by Joanna ShiRM2004-04c
(Jun 2004)

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Alternative Measures of Core Inflation on the Mainland

by Chang Shu and Andrew TsangRM2004-04b
(May 2004)

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Macroeconomic Conditions and Banking Performance in Hong Kong: A Panel Data Study

by Stefan Gerlach, Wensheng Peng and Chang ShuRM2004-04d
(Apr 2004)

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Banking Sector Competition in Hong Kong - Measurement and Evolution Over Time

by Guorong Jiang, Jim Wong, Nancy Tang and Angela SzeRM2004-04
(Apr 2004)

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Return And Volatility Spillovers In Hong Kong Financial Markets

by Laurence Fung and Ip-wing YuRM2004-01
(Mar 2004)

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A Simple Measure of Underlying Inflation:

by Stefan Gerlach and Matthew YiuRM2004-02
(Feb 2004)

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2003

Volatility Linkages between Financial Markets in Hong Kong

by Laurence Fung and Ip-wing YuRM2003-19
(Dec 2003)

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Credit Risk Transfers using Derivatives

by Ada Lee and Eve LawRM2003-18c
(Dec 2003)

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An Analysis Of The Financial Health Of Hong Kong Corporations

by Ip-wing Yu, Fanny Ho, Eve Law and Laurence FungRM2003-17
(Dec 2003)

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Understanding Volatility In Hong Kong's Financial Markets

by Ip-wing Yu and Laurence FungRM2003-15
(Nov 2003)

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Determinants of Bank Profitability in Hong Kong

by Guorong Jiang, Nancy Tang, Eve Law and Angela SzeRM2003-14c
(Sep 2003)

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Factors Influencing the Share of Hong Kong Dollar Deposits in Total Depos